Analysis: The Iran-Iraq war triggers six major crises, which may threaten global economic stability

Gate News update: the Iran-U.S. war is triggering multiple economic shocks worldwide, with at least six major crises occurring at the same time, potentially threatening the stability of financial markets. Analyst Crypto Rover warns that the current situation could lead to full-spectrum economic turmoil.

First, the food supply outlook is under pressure. Since traffic through the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted, about 30% of seaborne fertilizer trade has been halted, urea prices have risen by 50%, and the wheat market has shown a net bullish trend. Helios, an artificial intelligence analytics company, predicts that by the end of 2026, global food prices could increase by 12% to 18%.

Second, Japan’s bond market is under strain, with yields climbing to multi-decade highs, which may signal broader market risks. At the same time, the private credit market has seen redemption restrictions, with several companies, including Blue Owl, BlackRock, and Apollo, pausing some capital flows. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned that overall leveraged loan losses could be higher than expected.

Subprime loan default rates are also rising, reaching 10% of the total outstanding debt—an 11-year high. Since 2021, the default rate has increased threefold, and the risk level is similar to that seen during the 2008 financial crisis.

Signs of stagflation are evident, as oil prices have surged, lifting inflation expectations. U.S. consumer inflation expectations in March rose to 6.2%. Saudi Aramco set a new record high for Asian oil prices, further intensifying global inflation pressures.

In addition, Iranian airstrikes have hit the Middle East’s aluminum industry. UAE-based Emirates Global Aluminium expects that full recovery of its main plants may take 12 months. The Middle East accounts for about 9% of global aluminum output, and supply disruptions will affect a wide range of applications, from aviation to solar panels.

Overall, these six crises are simultaneously pressuring the global economy, with risks facing food, energy, debt, financial markets, and industrial supply chains. Whether a ceasefire can be achieved will determine if these crises remain controllable fluctuations—or whether they could trigger a larger-scale global economic upheaval.