On March 12, PolyBeats detected two high-win-rate addresses betting on prediction markets that "the US and Iran will not cease fire before May," with a combined investment of $15,000 at a current price of 52.5¢. Meanwhile, Iran escalated attacks on Gulf shipping, causing a halt to traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with analysts seeing no signs of de-escalation.

According to Polymarket data, on March 12th, an address placed a $4,900 bet that "Trump will announce the cessation of military operations against Iran before May." This bet is based on statements from Trump and the U.S. government, with the end of the war being decided by them. Oil prices surged due to Iran's attack on supply chains. The trader's behavior indicates that they are not betting on the actual occurrence of the event.

According to Lookonchain monitoring, the whale address pension-usdt.eth has been continuously shorting BTC and ETH, while going long on crude oil, with holdings reaching 1,000 BTC and 8,950 ETH. Since March 1, it has gained approximately $27 million with an 85% win rate.

Gate News bot message, according to the official Gate announcement on March 11, 2026 Gate launches "Crazy Wednesday" event, running from 14:00 on March 11, 2026, to 16:00 on March 15, 2026(UTC+8). Users can unlock blind boxes by completing multiple tasks such as flash swaps, spot trading, and futures trading, with a chance to win XPIN tokens, Airbnb gift cards, and other prizes. The blind boxes guarantee a win. During the event, Gate introduces USDT financial products with a 14-day fixed-term annualized yield of 8%. New users participating in 3-day fixed-term financial products can achieve an annualized yield of up to 100%. Additionally, cryptocurrencies like 0G, APT, AZTEC, IDOS, and others offer annualized yields of up to 300%. There are also staking activities for BTC, ETH, and SOL mining, offering a 5% bonus interest rate. Staking BTC can yield a maximum annualized return of 9.99%, staking ETH up to 9.75%, and staking SOL up to 16%.

In the Poli market, an address with a high win rate invested $4,000 betting that the U.S. military will enter Iran in March. Despite frequent signals from the U.S. side indicating that military operations have been completed, the market remains concerned about the U.S. special forces' on-the-ground actions, speculating that they may carry out ground missions to control nuclear materials.

On the Polymarket platform, an account placed a $7,500 bet to buy "Nothing Happens: MicroStrategy," betting that MicroStrategy will not trigger a specific condition to settle as "No." MicroStrategy recently increased its Bitcoin holdings, now holding 738,731 coins, just 11,269 coins short of 750,000, with the related market probability reaching as high as 98%.

Gate News Report, March 9th: According to Lookonchain monitoring, trader pension-usdt.eth opened a 3x leveraged long position on 1,000 BTC, worth $67.26 million, two hours ago. Currently, this trade has an unrealized profit of $970,000. Data shows that this trader has made 10 consecutive profitable trades since March 1st, with no losses, accumulating a total profit of $27.22 million, and a win rate of 85%.

According to on-chain analysts monitoring, the well-known account "Old Demon" is long on $30.31 million worth of ETH and BTC, with a total profit of 86.6 million RMB, a historical win rate of 50%, and a total return of 3698%.

Gate launched the 27th edition of Crazy Wednesday from March 4 to 8. Users who register can receive a 50 USDT trial fund, and completing multiple tasks can unlock blind boxes to win big prizes. At the same time, a USDT fixed-term financial product with an annualized yield of 10% was introduced, with new users enjoying 100% annualized yield for 3 days. Participate in on-chain earning and mining with an annualized yield of up to 16%.