#Gate广场圣诞送温暖

BTC daily death cross
Today, looking at the daily chart of $BTC , the 50-day moving average has officially crossed below the 200-day moving average, which is commonly referred to as a "death cross." This signal usually makes people nervous, but I went through the daily charts from 2015 to now, and there have been a total of 12 similar occurrences. I then categorized them based on the price levels at which the crosses occurred, and the patterns are quite interesting.
The first category is in most situations: when a downward crossing occurs, the price is not at a new low, meaning it is either in the process of rebounding or has finished rebounding before moving down, but has not yet broken below the previous low. This situation occurred a total of 9 times, with the outcome leaning towards continued decline, only 4 times later moving higher, while the other 5 times continued to extend the downward trend. In simple terms: not a low point downward crossing → the probability of moving down is greater.
The second type is quite different: there are a total of 3 occurrences. When the downward cross happens, the price is already near the low point, or even at a new low for this round of decline, and a new low is made within 0-2 K lines after the cross. The subsequent trend after these 3 occurrences is upward, and very consistent. The MA50 will cross back above the MA200 approximately 42 trading days after the downward cross, and the price is expected to break through the previous high point around 50 trading days later. In other words: a death cross occurring at a new low point is more likely to lead to a significant rebound.
On November 16, 2025, the MA50 breaking below the MA200 corresponds exactly to a new low point during this round of decline, which also fits the characteristics of the second type.
In other words, based on historical statistics, this death cross is not necessarily a bad thing; it may instead be a preliminary signal for a rebound structure. Of course, how it ultimately plays out will depend on the market structure, but in terms of the pattern itself, this type of downward crossing tends to favor subsequent rebound and rise.