The market widely expects the Fed to cut interest rates in December, with an 80-85% probability of a 25 basis point cut, but there is also an expectation for a 50 basis point cut, with a probability of about 22%.

Market reaction: Expectations of interest rate cuts drive global stock markets up, the dollar weakens, and risk assets such as gold, silver, and cryptocurrencies generally rebound, with Bitcoin rising to as much as $87,647.
Key drivers: The cooling labor market and inflation data showing reduced upside risks are key factors driving the Fed's shift to a "dovish" stance.
Potential risks: The market has largely digested the expectations of interest rate cuts, and we need to be wary of the "buy the expectation, sell the fact" market. At the same time, there are differences within the Fed regarding the extent of interest rate cuts, and there remains uncertainty in the decision-making.
Market Conditions
The market strongly expects a rate cut in December, with an 80-85% probability of a 25 basis point cut, driving a rebound in global stock and crypto markets.
The price of Bitcoin once reached $87,647, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds fell below 4%, reflecting the market's optimistic sentiment.
Core driving factors
The main driving force is the cooling of the U.S. labor market, with slower job growth providing a reason for interest rate cuts.
The core PCE inflation rate is close to the 2% target, alleviating inflationary pressures and providing space for a policy shift.
Although Fed officials lean towards a dovish stance, there are still internal differences regarding the extent of interest rate cuts, which brings uncertainty.
Trading Strategies and Risk Analysis
Strategically be wary of the "sell the fact" market, and you can operate using the key support of BTC at $95,620 and resistance at $98,119.
The risk lies in policies falling short of expectations causing sell-offs. It is recommended to maintain cash positions and set stop-losses to manage risk. #Gate广场圣诞送温暖