Bitcoin may fall to $65,000? MSCI adjusts to double blows of risk and liquidity tightening

Bitcoin faced selling pressure again this week, briefly dropping below $83,000. Weak liquidity, concerns about Japan's macroeconomics over the weekend, and market panic over MSCI potentially adjusting its index constituents have led to this round of rapid and disorderly decline. Currently, Bitcoin is fluctuating around $85,000, while mainstream tokens such as Ethereum, XRP, ADA, SOL, and BNB are also down about 2%, indicating that the market is under general pressure.

Several market participants emphasized that this drop is not significantly related to traditional macro factors, and the core reason is the market structure is weak, the order book depth is insufficient, and it is difficult to withstand any external pressure. VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani pointed out that Bitcoin falling below $90,000 is the result of “a weak market structure colliding with soft weekend liquidity.”

At the same time, greater structural risks arise from MSCI's latest consideration: excluding companies that hold a highly concentrated amount of crypto assets from the global index. These companies include Strategy, Riot, Marathon, Metaplanet, etc., which collectively hold over $137 billion in Bitcoin, accounting for about 5% of the entire network.

If MSCI adjusts its rules, index funds may be forced to sell these stocks on a large scale, triggering further capital outflows. The market has begun to price in this potential shock in advance. “Any rebalancing could trigger forced dumping and capital imbalances,” Ehsani warned.

Bitcoin has just experienced a bleak November, with a monthly drop of 17.5%, marking one of its worst performances in three years. If it continues to fall below the key support level of around $80,500 in the short term, the technical indicators may point to a lower range of $64,000–$65,000, or even test $60,000.

However, this range may attract large institutions to reposition themselves, especially potential buyers such as competitors of Strategy. On-chain data shows that the system leverage is decreasing, reducing some systemic risks, but the current macro and index-related pressures are still difficult to fully offset.

The market is feeling cold, and mainstream tokens are generally under pressure. However, it is worth noting that there is a structural differentiation in U.S. crypto ETFs: the Solana ETF has seen a net inflow of over $600 million for five consecutive weeks, and the cumulative inflow for the spot XRP ETF has also surpassed $666 million, indicating that institutions are still selectively betting on specific sectors. The crypto market is currently in a highly sensitive range, and investors need to be wary of the downward pressure brought by structural risks. (CoinDesk)