French bank: If the Supreme Court overturns Trump tariffs, the dollar may fall.

On December 2, BNP Paribas pointed out in its 2026 outlook report that if the U.S. Supreme Court rules that President Trump’s use of emergency powers to impose comprehensive tariffs is unconstitutional, the dollar may immediately weaken after the ruling. “This is because a key fiscal revenue will be negatively impacted, leading to market doubts about the sustainability of the U.S. fiscal deficit,” analysts said. This could lead investors to demand a higher premium to hold dollar assets. However, the report also notes that the Trump administration may ultimately compensate for the fiscal gap caused by the loss of tariff revenue by implementing alternative tariff measures. ( Jin10 )