Is it possible that Bitcoin is becoming more like US stocks, while altcoins have just gone through their own 2018?

First, looking at the charts, removing BTC, ETH, and stablecoins, the total market cap of altcoins peaked in December 2024.

Second, in terms of monetary policy, there was a rate hike in 2018, and while there may not be a rate hike in 2025, the first three quarters will maintain high interest rates. The federal funds rate will stay at 4.25%~4%.

Third, in the economic environment, both 2018 and 2025 feature tariffs and trade wars.

Fourth, from a cycle perspective, due to expectations of the four-year cycle, traders are positioning themselves in advance, causing each cycle to start earlier.

In the cycle before last, altcoin season was in January 2018.

In the last cycle, altcoin season was in April 2021, and most altcoins in the second half of the year didn't reach the highs of the first half.

Following this rhythm, it makes perfect sense for this cycle's altcoin season to be at the end of 2024.

Of course, the market no longer buys into the so-called technology or ecosystem narratives for altcoins, which is an important factor.

But this disruption of the cycle also serves as a litmus test—those projects that just want to cash in during the bull market will likely give up development by 2026.

On the other hand, the projects that are truly building won't promote themselves during the bear market, but will keep working steadily.