JPMorgan Warns on What Could Shape Bitcoin's Next Major Move

Source: ETHNews Original Title: JPMorgan Warns on What Could Shape Bitcoin’s Next Major Move Original Link: JPMorgan analysts are cautioning that Bitcoin’s short-term direction may depend on a factor many traders overlook: the financial stability and strategic positioning of MicroStrategy, the largest corporate holder of BTC.

According to the bank, Bitcoin’s near-term momentum is closely tied to MicroStrategy’s ability to keep its Enterprise Value to Bitcoin (EV/BTC) ratio above 1, a threshold that helps prevent any pressure for forced selling.

The company currently maintains an EV/BTC ratio of 1.13, supported by a substantial $1.44 billion cash reserve that provides two years of coverage for its obligations.

The analysts point to a significant upcoming catalyst: MSCI’s January 15 decision on whether MicroStrategy remains in its index.

JPMorgan notes that continued inclusion could support a Bitcoin rebound by preserving institutional demand, while exclusion would likely generate only mild headwinds, as most of that risk has already been priced in.

Looking beyond the immediate horizon, JPMorgan’s mid-term valuation framework places Bitcoin’s fair value near $170,000, reflecting broader adoption trends and improving liquidity conditions.

The bank’s analysis underscores how closely Bitcoin’s price cycles have become linked to corporate balance-sheet dynamics, and why MicroStrategy’s financial health could play a defining role in shaping Bitcoin’s trajectory heading into 2026.