Some people say you can double your money by arbitraging USDT with just 10,000 RMB in ten trades. I laughed—the math looks perfect on paper, but what about reality?

# The "Math Game" on Paper

The formula is simple: Buy USDT with 10,000 RMB at a rate of 6.95, which gets you 1,438 USDT. Then sell it with a Hong Kong card at 7.83, immediately turning it into 11,266 HKD, which converts back to about 10,232 RMB. That's a single trade profit of 232 RMB, a 2.32% return.

Some people really believe in the magic of compounding—repeat this ten times and, in theory, you could make 2,577 RMB. The math checks out, but is this actually doable?

# Three Deadly Pitfalls

**Fees are a bottomless pit.** Banks take a cut for cross-border transfers, platforms take another cut on withdrawals, and that 232 profit might not even cover your costs.

**Exchange rates never cooperate.** The rates 6.95 and 7.83 only exist for a fleeting second—next moment, they could flip. You just bought in, and the selling price crashes. Profit? Forget about it.

**Regulatory risks are real.** Frequent cross-platform transactions will attract the bank’s risk control systems. Getting your account frozen is the least of your problems; being accused of illegal business activities is serious trouble.

# The Harsh Truth of Probability

Suppose each trade has a 0.5% chance of being flagged—sounds low, right?

- After 10 trades, survival rate is 95%, not bad
- After 100 trades, survival rate drops to 60%, half are out
- After 1,000 trades? Survival rate is 0.665%—basically game over

I know a guy who made 200 on his first trade, 300 on his second, and thought he’d found the key to wealth. Third time, USDT price crashed, bank froze his account, and he lost 5,000. Now he tells everyone: "This money burns your hands."

# Let’s Be Real

A 2.32% return sounds sweet. But you need to think about three things:

**First, costs are higher than you think.** Fees, time, and exchange rate loss might leave you with a negative return.

**Second, compliance matters more than profit.** If you end up in legal trouble before making money, you’ve already lost.

**Third, your principal is the bottom line.** Better to earn less than to gamble on "survival rates"—making money but not being able to spend it is the biggest joke of all.

Arbitrage always looks perfect on paper. But in reality, it’s the hidden pitfalls that are truly deadly.