There’s a rather subtle time window this month.

On the 10th, the Fed is very likely to cut interest rates—according to the "FedWatch" tool, the probability has already soared above 85%, and the market basically sees this as a done deal.

But on the 19th, the tone from the Bank of Japan shifts dramatically. The BOJ governor has already signaled a rate hike, and this time it looks pretty certain.

One’s easing, the other’s tightening. Logically, a Fed rate cut should be bullish, while a yen rate hike would bring selling pressure. But the problem is, the broader environment is still in a bear market bottoming phase—at times like these, “bad news hits hard, good news barely makes a dent.”

So the more realistic scenario is: the impact of Japan’s rate hike will most likely directly offset whatever benefit comes from the Fed’s rate cut.

Once the rate hike actually happens, funds that rely on low-interest arbitrage will start to exit, and the crypto market will probably test new lows.

The conclusion is simple—don’t get your hopes up during this period. The rebound potential is limited, and the risks clearly outweigh the opportunities. Play it safe.