Every day during my review, I keep thinking that the answer is actually written all over the 1-hour candlestick chart.

Right now, BTC is frozen at 89240, and things seem calm on the surface. But you have to realize, the bulls and bears are wrestling behind the scenes, and neither side is willing to let go first.

**Subtle Changes on the News Front**

The US December Consumer Confidence Index just came out, ticking up slightly, but overall sentiment remains cautious. Inflation expectations are easing—which is good news for the market, at least the Fed doesn’t have to be so tense anymore. But the phrase “cautious sentiment” is interesting; it shows that big money is holding back, not daring to go all in. In this kind of atmosphere, it’s hard for the crypto market to see a violent surge. The more realistic scenario? Choppy consolidation. Grinding out the direction over time.

**Technical Risks**

On the chart, the trend is still up, but the MACD’s fast and slow lines have already crossed downward above the zero line and are starting to fall. Anyone familiar knows this means upward momentum is fading. It’s like a car still moving forward on momentum, but the engine is starting to smoke.

Looking up, 94000 is a hard ceiling, pressing down like a lid; looking down, 90000 is a key level, and 87000 is the support zone. The focus tonight is: can it use the last bit of strength to break through 94000? Or will the bearish crossover drag it down to test 90000 or even 87000?

**My View**

A direct breakout above 94000? Not very realistic. Most likely, it’ll dip down first to test and confirm the support level, then decide the next move. Tonight through tomorrow, just keep a close eye on 90000. If it holds, we might see some sideways accumulation here; if it breaks, it’s likely heading straight for the 87000 area.