The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December has surged to 94%, and the $260 million trading volume on Polymarket has pretty much sealed the deal. Interestingly, though, a lot of people are getting nervous after seeing this number.

But from another perspective, a rate cut might not be a bad thing for crypto assets. If you look back at historical trends, you'll see that assets like Bitcoin often outperform traditional markets during rate-cut cycles. When liquidity loosens, capital needs somewhere to go.

There’s an important detail to consider here—when the market reaches a lopsided consensus like 94%, big players have already positioned themselves in advance. What they’re after is this expectation gap: while retail investors are still waiting on the sidelines, they’re accumulating at low levels, and by the time everyone else jumps in, those early movers may already be taking profits.

Timing is also key. During the rate cut expectation phase, altcoins might move first as capital chases high volatility; but once the actual rate cut happens, we might see funds flow back to relatively stable assets like Bitcoin. This difference in timing is where the opportunity lies.

There’s never a shortage of opportunities in the market—what’s lacking is a calm, analytical mindset. Don’t let emotions drive your decisions; data and logic are your foundation.