ZEC gave us another thrill today, with the price plunging straight down to $354 and causing quite a bit of panic. Stay calm—let’s separate the technicals from the regulatory news and look at them individually.

On the technical side, here’s the conclusion: bears currently have the upper hand. Looking at the 1-hour chart, the upper Bollinger Band is stuck at 409.23, the middle band at 340.16, and the current price of 354 is right at the middle band, bouncing back and forth. The first resistance is at 370.41, the second at 390.32, both presenting significant pressure. The MACD still shows shrinking green bars, and the signal lines are in a bearish crossover and heading down, indicating selling pressure hasn’t eased yet. In the short term, the probability of further decline is higher.

However, the real variable lies in regulation.

The SEC has scheduled a roundtable for December 15, with the theme directly targeting cryptocurrency, financial monitoring, and privacy. They’ve even specifically invited Zcash founder Zooko Wilcox. What signal does this send? Regulatory attitudes may soon become clear. If policies tighten, privacy coins like this will be hit first, and prices could take another hit; but if the compliance of privacy tech is recognized, ZEC might see a breakout. The market is in a wait-and-see mode at this pivotal moment.

My personal view? Jumping in at 354 to gamble on direction carries way more risk than opportunity right now. With the SEC meeting yet to happen, uncertainty on the news front is the biggest enemy. Retail traders should avoid betting in the fog—waiting until the dust settles might be the safer play.