Crypto Rebound Ahead? Market Signals Point to December Recovery

Source: ETHNews Original Title: Crypto Rebound Ahead? Coinbase Says December Is Primed for Recovery Original Link: https://www.ethnews.com/crypto-rebound-ahead-coinbase-says-december-is-primed-for-recovery/ The market may be entering the early stages of a recovery. According to recent institutional analysis, crypto could be positioned for a December turnaround, supported by improving liquidity conditions, sharply rising expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut, and a set of macro trends that have begun shifting in favor of risk assets.

As of December 4, Fed cut probabilities have surged to 92%, creating a backdrop that historically encourages capital flow back into crypto.

The analysis notes that conditions highlighted in October, including a positioning reset and expected November weakness, are now aligning with the type of December reversal that often marks the beginning of a stronger trend.

Liquidity Recovers as Macro Winds Turn Supportive

Recent data shows global M2 money supply climbing steadily again after a mid-year dip. M2 growth is one of the cleanest indicators of global liquidity, and previous expansions in this metric have closely mirrored strong periods for Bitcoin and broader crypto markets. As liquidity improves, crypto typically becomes more attractive to both institutional allocators and systematic macro traders.

Institutional research also points out that fears of an “AI bubble” cooling the risk environment have not materialized. Instead, AI-linked equities and infrastructure plays remain strong, signaling that the broader risk cycle still has room to run. Meanwhile, short-USD trades continue to appeal at current levels, adding an additional incentive for foreign capital to rotate into non-dollar assets, including digital assets.

Why December Could Mark a Shift in Market Momentum

According to recent analysis, the retracement seen through November resembles a controlled reset rather than structural weakness. Earlier research flagged this exact pattern, suggesting that the market was preparing for a stronger move into year-end. With M2 rising, macro easing expectations strengthening, and crypto already showing signs of stabilization, December appears to be a potential inflection point.

If momentum does reassert itself from here, this could become the starting line for renewed risk appetite heading into 2026, especially if liquidity conditions continue to improve at their current pace.