#美联储重启降息步伐 Don’t just focus on candlestick charts—the real turning point signal may have already appeared.

Recently, I noticed an interesting on-chain indicator—the Behavior-Weighted Trend Signal (BWTS). Unlike ordinary loss-selling statistics, this one specifically tracks whether the “holders who have held for a while” are also starting to crack. When these medium- or long-term holders start to capitulate, it’s called “trend capitulation” in industry jargon, and it often marks a true emotional bottom.

Why pay attention to this? Because retail panic selling is common, but when even those patient, long-term players are forced to sell, it means the pressure has really reached a critical point. Once this pressure is released, the conditions for a rebound are in place.

Looking back at historical data, you’ll find that when BWTS diverges from BTC price—meaning the indicator shows intensified capitulation, but the price doesn’t break down further—this combination often signals that selling pressure is being absorbed and the market may soon withstand it. The current pattern has a bit of this flavor. As long as this divergence structure remains intact, potential rebound momentum is still accumulating.

Of course, not every divergence leads to a desired result. The May 2022 Luna crash is a real-life lesson—at that time, a divergence pattern had already formed, but a sudden event shattered the structure, causing the rebound to die prematurely, followed by an even deeper winter. So, external black swan events can indeed disrupt the natural market clearing process.

In short, BWTS gives us a perspective: when even the most steadfast holders start to waver, it often means the last batch of sellers is exiting. When the bears are almost exhausted, dawn is not far away.

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