#比特币对比代币化黄金 Let’s talk about the recent market trends. My view is clear—the bearish signals are accumulating.

Starting with the macro perspective: The Fed’s upcoming rate cut is almost a certainty and the market has already fully priced in this expectation. When the actual announcement comes? It could very well be a classic case of “buy the rumor, sell the news.”

The technicals are even more straightforward: On the daily chart, this rebound stalled right at the 30-day moving average, losing steam after barely touching around 94100. This level was only reached due to CZ’s news and a short-term sentiment boost, not real buying power.

Japan’s rate cut has already played out in the market narrative. If this trend continues, there’s a high chance funds will exit early—the “sell the news” scenario might play out soon.

Don’t forget the crypto space’s four-year cycle is still in effect. 2026 will likely be a bear market phase, so at this point, the rebound is just an opportunity to find a better exit. There’s no lowest, only lower—the old saying holds true.

US stocks are already near all-time highs, having just finished a crazy bull run thanks to some policy tailwinds. According to the usual capital flow patterns, there’s a good chance we’ll see profit-taking pressure before Christmas.

Based on these signals, I’m preparing to add to my long-term bearish positions. This round is supported by news, technical patterns are aligned, and the timing feels right.

Specific strategy:
$BTC can start building positions in batches within the 90000-91500 range, using 3%-5%-10% position sizing steps. First target is 83600, and further down, 78800.
$ETH can also enter in batches around the 3060-3100 region, with the same position control as above. First target is 2660, second target is 2350.

That’s it for the weekend—stay mindful of risk management and trade safely.