These three dates in December could directly determine how Bitcoin moves at the end of the year.

First, December 11. The Federal Reserve is holding a meeting, and the market currently sees an 87% probability of a rate cut—that’s not a low number. But you have to understand, expectations are most vulnerable to reversals; if anything unexpected happens, the market could explode instantly.

The real risk is on December 19. If the Bank of Japan actually raises rates this time, that’s no small matter. Global liquidity is already tight, and this rate hike would essentially drain liquidity from the market, affecting all kinds of assets. Don’t think that just because it’s far away, it won’t affect you—capital flows know no borders.

The main event is December 26—the annual BTC options expiry. How big is it this time? Notional value of $23 billion. The bulls are eyeing the $100,000 max pain point, while the bears have piled a large number of put options at $84,000. Both sides will definitely go all out, and whoever wins will basically set the tone for the end of the year.

These three dates are closely linked; any issue in one could trigger a chain reaction. Be cautious with your trades lately—don’t blindly increase your positions.