Bitcoin Drives Strategy's Future: Cantor Cuts Price Target 60% but Remains Optimistic

Source: CoinTribune Original Title: Bitcoin: Strategy Falls, but Cantor Still Believes Original Link: https://www.cointribune.com/en/bitcoin-strategy-falls-but-cantor-still-believes/

Cantor Fitzgerald Halves Its Target for Strategy

Cantor Fitzgerald has shaken the markets by lowering its price target for Strategy from $560 to $229, a drop of 60%. A rare decision, even in as volatile a sector as crypto. This revision comes as Strategy’s (MSTR) stock has lost 35% since the beginning of the year and 27% in the last month. With a market cap of $53 billion, the company holds over 650,000 bitcoins, valued at about $55.7 billion at the current price.

This 60% cut by Cantor Fitzgerald on MSTR is partly explained by bitcoin’s price falling from $126,000 in October to about $86,000 in early December 2025. Worse yet, Strategy faces a major regulatory risk. MSCI is considering excluding companies with more than 50% of assets in crypto. This decision could trigger forced sales of MSTR worth $2.8 billion.

Strategy: Why Cantor Remains Optimistic Despite Everything

Despite the drastic revision of its price target, Cantor Fitzgerald maintains an optimistic view on Strategy. The bank highlights several key strengths of the company, notably:

• The $1.44 billion cash reserve, raised in fiat currency and not in bitcoin
• The ability to issue new shares to fund itself, reducing the risk of forced sales of its BTC holdings
• The “leveraged bitcoin beta” of Strategy, a stock whose valuation almost entirely depends on bitcoin’s price

Furthermore, Cantor Fitzgerald notes that liquidation fears would only be justified in an extreme bitcoin crash, with a 90% drop. A scenario analysts at the bank consider unlikely. Moreover, the bank views the recent correction as a healthy consolidation phase, necessary before a sustainable recovery.

Bitcoin: How Its Price Dictates Market Decisions

Bitcoin’s price plays a central role in stock valuations, and Strategy is a perfect example. The correlation between BTC and MSTR prices is striking: when bitcoin falls, MSTR collapses. In November 2025, record outflows of $3.6 billion from bitcoin ETFs accelerated the decline of MSTR and the entire crypto sector. This dynamic shows how much bitcoin influences investors’ and analysts’ decisions.

Additionally, analysts’ decisions and indices like MSCI are directly influenced by bitcoin’s volatility. Therefore, a price recovery above $100,000 could revive MSTR and ease regulatory fears. Conversely, another decline would worsen pressure on Strategy and speed up its exclusion from indices.

Cantor Fitzgerald sent a clear message: Michael Saylor’s company is not in immediate danger, but its future remains closely tied to bitcoin’s. Between strong liquidity and regulatory risks, the company embodies the challenges and opportunities of a maturing crypto market.