The Bay Stream on the Square | 2025.12.14

The weekend market was sticky and sluggish, caught between ups and downs. Right in front of us is the Christmas holiday, and this week’s drama revolves around two main points: whether the market can capitalize on the “Christmas trading” tradition for a quick surge, and after that, whether it will break upward or continue to lie flat.

First, let’s talk about the Christmas effect. Historical data shows that markets tend to rise around late December. However, this rally usually occurs in two steps: first, retail traders’ FOMO enthusiasm and year-end bonuses drive the initial wave, characterized by rapid gains but high volatility. The key is the second step: whether institutions and big players (whales) will follow suit. If they only observe without stepping in, this rally won’t last long. Current data indicates that whales have stopped selling, but their buying remains cautious. Open interest in the market is declining, suggesting large funds have not fully re-entered. So, any pre-holiday rally should first be viewed as short-term volatility.

The true direction depends on several key indicators. The recent resistance zone is around $93,000 - $94,000—this has been a stubborn barrier over the past few months, and without volume, it’s unlikely to be broken through. On the downside, holding $90,000 is crucial; a break below could deepen the correction. Additionally, attention must be paid to the capital flow of Bitcoin spot ETFs—this is a thermometer of institutional sentiment. Only if it shifts back to sustained net inflows can the market sustain an upward trend.

Bay Stream View: In summary, the market is likely to remain volatile this week (pre-Christmas). There might be sudden rallies driven by holiday sentiment, but the key depends on volume and ETF fund flows. In terms of trading, avoid chasing highs, focus on the strength of the $90,000 support and the breakthrough of $93,000. Until one of these levels is convincingly broken, keep your positions controlled and prioritize the holiday. #广场发帖领$50 $BTC ‌#十二月行情展望