Decisive Battle: CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls — How Does the Super Data Week Influence the Crypto Market?

Delayed US October and November key economic data due to government shutdown will be densely released this week, becoming the final and largest source of uncertainty in the financial markets at year-end.

Because of the previous US government shutdown, core economic data such as non-farm payrolls and CPI for October and November, originally scheduled for early November, have been postponed and will be released together this week. This means that mid to late December, usually calm, will unusually be filled with “data bombs” capable of reshaping market logic.

Market analysis generally views this week as the core window for determining asset trends in early 2026. The delayed “horrible data” retail sales will also be released, further increasing market volatility.

1. Unconventional Data Release Week

This week, the core logic of global market trading revolves entirely around a special event: the combined release of October and November core economic data from the US.

● Due to the previous US government shutdown, several key data releases including non-farm employment, CPI, and retail sales were forced to be delayed. According to arrangements, the US Department of Labor will release a combined non-farm payroll report for October and November on Tuesday (December 16).

● Similarly, the delayed October and November CPI data will be released on Thursday (December 18). This unconventional, high-density data release disrupts the original seasonal calm rhythm of the market, making mid-December a decisive moment for asset prices at year-end and even early next year.

● The importance of the data lies in the “employment-inflation” picture they depict, which is the cornerstone of Federal Reserve rate decisions.

2. Market Expectations: A Contradictory Answer

Before the data is released, market surveys by institutions like The Wall Street Journal have already formed a “pre-expectation answer” full of internal contradictions.

Data Category

Release Date

Data Period

Market Forecast

Non-farm Payrolls

December 16 (Tuesday)

November

+50,000

Unemployment Rate

December 16 (Tuesday)

November

4.50%

CPI Year-over-Year

December 18 (Thursday)

November

3.10%

Core CPI Year-over-Year

December 18 (Thursday)

November

3.00%

● The market expectations themselves reveal the core contradictions of the current economy: on one hand, the market expects employment growth to slow significantly (November non-farm expected at +50,000), implying economic cooling.

● On the other hand, inflation expectations stubbornly remain high (CPI forecast at 3.1%, core CPI at 3.0%), well above the Fed’s 2% target, indicating a deadlock in the fight against inflation. This contradictory answer is a microcosm of the Fed’s dilemma and the root of market volatility.

3. The Fed’s Dilemma: Finding Balance Amid Contradictory Data

Regardless of the data combination, the Fed, which follows a “data-dependent” approach, will face an even deeper dilemma.

● If the data is “weak employment + high inflation,” known as “stagflation,” it will be the worst scenario. The Fed will have to make painful choices between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation, with policy uncertainty reaching its peak.

● If the data is “strong employment + high inflation,” it will confirm concerns among some Fed officials that the economy is overheating and inflation is entrenched. Expectations for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer will be reinforced, and discussions of resuming rate hikes may even restart.

● The only scenario that could ease market fears is “weak employment + low inflation.” This would clearly point to economic cooling and controlled inflation, paving the way for the Fed to start a clear rate-cut cycle in 2026. However, given current inflation stickiness, the probability of this scenario is relatively low.

4. Asset Prices Face a “Stress Test”

This delayed “make-up exam” for data will conduct a comprehensive “stress test” on major global asset classes.

● Forex Market: The US Dollar Index will be directly tested. Any data indicating resilience of the US economy or stubborn inflation could push the dollar higher. Conversely, if data is broadly weak, the dollar will come under pressure.

● Stock Market: The US stock market, especially rate-sensitive tech growth stocks, will face significant volatility. Better-than-expected data may dampen hopes for rate cuts, causing a correction; worse-than-expected data may raise recession fears, also unfavorable for stocks.

● Bond Market: US Treasury yields, especially short-term yields, will be most sensitive to inflation data. CPI figures above expectations may trigger bond sell-offs, pushing yields higher.

● Gold: Gold prices will be caught in a dilemma. High inflation data theoretically benefits inflation-hedging gold, but simultaneously boosts the dollar and interest rates, which suppress gold. Gold’s movement will depend on whether the market prefers trading the “inflation” logic or the “interest rate” logic.

5. Crypto Market: Standing at the Crossroads of Liquidity

As a “highly sensitive detector” of global liquidity and risk appetite, the cryptocurrency market is at a critical crossroads.

● The traditional macro logic still dominates short-term crypto trends: loose liquidity expectations are the booster, while tightening expectations are the extinguishing agent. Therefore, this week’s data, by influencing Fed policy expectations, will directly impact the prices of mainstream crypto assets like Bitcoin.

Scenario 1: Data Reinforces Tightening Expectations (High Probability)

If any of the non-farm or CPI data significantly exceeds expectations, market bets on rate cuts in 2026 will sharply retreat. This will lead to:

1. An increase in expectations for marginal tightening of dollar liquidity.

2. Suppressed market risk appetite.

In this scenario, cryptocurrencies, as leading risk assets, are likely to be sold off along with traditional US stocks, with volatility sharply increasing.

Scenario 2: Data Reinforces Rate Cut Expectations (Low Probability)

If data shows a cooling job market and a significant decline in inflation, market hopes for an earlier shift by the Fed will reignite. This will create an ideal macro environment for crypto: a weaker dollar, lower real interest rate expectations, and a return of risk appetite. Bitcoin is expected to lead a rebound in risk assets.

Given inflation’s stubbornness, the first scenario is more likely. Crypto market participants should prepare for potential “tightening shocks,” closely watching the immediate reactions of the dollar index (DXY) and US 2-year Treasury yields, which are often more accurate leading indicators of capital flows.

“All eyes are on the upcoming US employment and inflation data.” Traders hold their breath, as this delayed data storm will directly set the tone for the end of 2025 and the investment landscape of 2026.

Whether in forex, stocks, or crypto, after this week, a clearer macro trading map for 2026 will emerge.

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