Federal Reserve official Waller's recent statements have sparked market reactions. The core message is straightforward: rate cuts are on the table, but don't interpret this as a return to the reckless easing of 2008.

Let's look at the current situation. Waller made it very clear that current interest rates are 50 to 100 basis points above the "neutral rate." In plain language, this means policy has already tightened significantly, to the point of suppressing economic growth. Against this backdrop, rate cuts have become a necessary option, not just a possibility.

The most critical turning point has arrived. He indicated that as long as there are signs of easing inflation prospects, rate cuts can be initiated—this is a major signal. Previously, the Fed would often wait until a severe recession or a spike in unemployment before cutting rates; now, the threshold has clearly lowered. The market responded immediately, with U.S. Treasury yields falling sharply.

Employment data is also helping to push forward the rate cut narrative. Although there hasn't been a crash-like decline, growth has nearly stalled, and signs of weakness are evident. The long-term impact of AI on employment remains uncertain, and there is currently no risk of a secondary acceleration in inflation. These factors are creating favorable conditions for rate cuts.

But there's a caveat. Waller emphasized the importance of an "appropriate pace." His meaning is that rate cuts will proceed, but at a steady pace, with a focus on preventing inflation from resurging. Considering Waller is a strong contender for the current Fed Chair position, his stance effectively sets the tone for next year's policy—supporting the economy and employment while strictly preventing inflation rebound, aiming for precise adjustments rather than large-scale easing.

Looking ahead, rate cuts in 2026 are highly likely with little doubt. However, the pace won't be aggressive. This means global asset prices will need to follow this rhythm. Cryptocurrencies like ZEC, DOGE, and LUNA will continue to be influenced by inflation expectations and employment data.

The investment logic is simple: don't bet on a one-sided trend, just follow the policy signals. Keep a close eye on subsequent inflation and employment data, as they are the barometers for the pace of rate cuts. The market is changing; only by surviving can you wait for real opportunities.