Oil Market
International oil prices surged sharply on Thursday: WTI crude rose by more than 13% and closed at $112.06 per barrel, recording the largest one-day gain since 2020; Brent futures rose by 7.78% to $109.03 per barrel. The reason is U.S. President Trump’s promise to continue strikes against Iran and the lack of deadlines for ending the conflict or opening the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that over the next two to three weeks there will be extremely tough strikes, promising to push Iran back to the “Stone Age,” which heightened fears of prolonged disruptions in oil supplies. Despite the fact that Iran and Oman are preparing a protocol to monitor the passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, traders shifted their focus to the vulnerability of Iran’s oil infrastructure. Recently, the spreads between U.S. oil and Brent reached their highest levels in a year, and the premium of near-term contracts over longer-dated ones also set an absolute record. Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Logan noted that accelerating the conflict’s end could have limited impact on the economy, but overall the outlook remains unclear. Citi expects that the average baseline price of Brent in the second half of the year will be $95, and in an optimistic scenario — $130; JPMorgan expects that in the short term oil could rise to $120–130, and if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed until mid-May — then also exceed $150.

According to the APP "Golden Shape" report, U.S. President Trump signed a statement on Thursday aimed at adjusting national tariffs for security reasons on the import of steel, aluminum, and copper (Section 232 tariffs). This adjustment is intended to lower tariff rates on derivative metals, simplify declaration procedures, and prevent undervaluation of import values.
The statement says that the U.S. will maintain a 50% tariff on imports of such bulk goods as steel, aluminum, and copper, but now this rate will be applied to the price paid by American consumers. The main changes concern derivative products, where a threshold metal content is introduced for more accurate duty assessment.
Details of the new rules
Under the new rules, if the steel, aluminum, or copper content in a derivative product by weight is less than 15%, the U.S. will cancel the previously applicable 50% tariff, effectively exempting such goods from duties. This measure is intended to exempt products with very low metal content, such as perfume bottles with aluminum caps or dental floss boxes with miniature steel blades.
For derivative products with metal content exceeding 15%, a reduced tariff rate of 25% will be applied, but this rate will be calculated based on the total value of the imported product, not just the metal content. Thus, for products like washing machines or gas stoves, where steel is a main component, the duty will be 25% of the total value.
Meanwhile, bulk goods made of steel, aluminum, and copper will retain a high 50% duty, calculated on the entire sale price. According to officials, these measures could generate additional revenue from tariffs and also simplify customs declaration, eliminating opportunities to evade tariffs by undervaluing metal content.

US Unemployment Data Comes in Below Expectations, Sending a Balancing Signal to Markets
The latest US labor market data revealed an unemployment rate of 4.3%, while market expectations were at 4.4%. Although limited, the data came in below expectations, indicating that the labor market remains relatively resilient.
The unemployment rate is considered one of the most critical indicators of economic activity. The lower-than-expected data suggests that labor demand remains strong and that the economic slowdown is progressing in a controlled manner. This is interpreted as limiting the risk of a sudden contraction, particularly in terms of growth.
On the other hand, the continued strength of the labor market has a dual effect on inflation dynamics. Maintaining high levels of employment supports consumer demand, while continued wage pressures may make it difficult for inflation to decline at the desired pace.
At this point, the data is critically important for the direction of Federal Reserve policies. A lower-than-expected unemployment rate may cause the Fed to be more cautious about cutting interest rates. Because the strong employment structure indicates that economic activity is still supported and that premature easing of tight monetary policy could pose a risk.
From a financial market perspective, such data generally leads to complex pricing. On the one hand, the preservation of economic strength stands out as a positive factor for risky assets, while on the other hand, the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a longer period may put pressure on the market.
In conclusion, the lower-than-expected US unemployment data shows that the economy maintains its resilient structure and suggests that a cautious stance in the monetary policy outlook may continue. This data indicates that a balanced and data-driven process will continue in the markets, rather than a sudden change in direction.
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