East Asian Card Game Under Currents: Who is the Real Winner in the China-Japan Confrontation?

On the surface, the China-Japan conflict seems to be a direct confrontation between two major regional powers, but the strategic chess game behind it is far more complex than imagined. Russia and the United States have long been poised on the sidelines, waiting for this potential conflict to bring strategic dividends to themselves.

Russia’s Historical Opportunity

The Northern Territories, a group of islands totaling less than 5,000 square kilometers, have been a long-standing sore spot between Russia and Japan. Since the Yalta Conference in 1945, the Soviet Union took control of these islands, and after the dissolution of the USSR, Russia seamlessly took over, developing them into a strategic gateway in the Far East.

Since the 1980s, Japan has held annual national events to reclaim the “Northern Territories.” Successive prime ministers have negotiated with Russia, with Shinzo Abe even attempting to use the signing of a peace treaty as a bargaining chip. However, Russia has consistently refused any concessions, citing “the historical interpretation of World War II.”

In recent years, Russia has increasingly militarized the Kuril Islands and Iturup Island. Over 150 military facilities, the deployment of the 18th Machine Gun Artillery Division, new patrol boats, and planned anti-ship missile systems like “Bal-E” and “Fortress-P” can establish a firepower network covering 350 kilometers. If China and Japan go to war, Japan’s military strength would be fully constrained by the East Asian continent, leaving it with little capacity to focus on the north. Russia could seize this opportunity to reinforce its military presence, improve military bases, and even transform Iturup Island’s natural deep-water port into a supply hub for the Pacific Fleet.

After Japan followed Western sanctions against Russia in 2022, Russia immediately halted peace negotiations and withdrew from joint development talks over the four islands. If a China-Japan conflict erupts, Russia will have even more reason to strengthen its actual control. By then, control of the Northern Territories will be firmly cemented by Russia.

The U.S.'s Unprofitable Business

In contrast, the United States is the most pure profit-maker in this potential conflict. The 1951 U.S.-Japan Security Treaty paved the way for America’s arms business—explicitly allowing U.S. military presence in Japan and providing military support based on Japanese needs.

In recent years, the U.S. has begun to warm up this business. In just over a year, three large-scale military procurement contracts have been signed: 400 Tomahawk cruise missiles, 150 Standard-6 surface-to-air missiles (worth $900 million), and 16 extended-range joint anti-aircraft and anti-missile land-attack missiles (costing $39 million). These weapons are not just for show—Tomahawks have a range of over 1,600 kilometers, and the Standard-6 has multiple functions including air defense, anti-ship, and missile defense.

The U.S. has already tasted the benefits of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Raytheon Technologies saw a 20% profit increase, and the military-industrial complex is operating at full throttle. If China and Japan go to war, Japan, as the world’s third-largest military spender, will see its arms procurement needs grow exponentially. From F-35 fighters to missile defense systems, U.S. defense companies will be flooded with orders.

What’s even more advantageous is that the U.S. doesn’t need to be on the battlefield. By staying behind the scenes, supplying weapons, and offering strategic advice, it can watch China spend its resources responding to the conflict, Japan drain its treasury on military purchases, while itself reaping the profits—weakening two regional powers and enriching itself at the same time.

Japan’s Dilemma and Trap

On the surface, Japan appears to be the initiator, but in reality, it has become the biggest pawn. Japan’s territory is limited, and its resources are inherently insufficient. If it has to respond simultaneously to the Chinese threat and the Northern Territories issue, it will fall into a dilemma of overextension.

Japan previously tried to pressure Russia through economic cooperation, but sanctions resulted in even fishing rights being suspended. If Japan goes to war with China, both its military and economy will be dragged into a quagmire. Moreover, the arms purchased from the U.S. are never cheap—buying more only ties Japan more tightly to U.S. interests, ultimately turning it into a tool for others’ agendas.

A deeper cost is that as Japan focuses on countering China, Russia will gradually strengthen its actual control over the Northern Territories. Every inspection by leaders and every deployment of advanced weapons are solidifying the facts on the ground. When the conflict ends, the Northern Territories will already be a firmly established Russian territory, making any future attempts to reclaim them exceedingly difficult.

Who Are the True Winners

This potential China-Japan confrontation essentially evolves into a strategic opportunity for Russia and the U.S… One side seizes the chance to resolve long-standing territorial issues, while the other profits immensely from selling war. Japan, in the end, is likely just a manipulated pawn, ending up with nothing but an empty victory. The harsh reality of geopolitics is that those who appear to be active participants often become the most powerless pieces on someone else’s chessboard.