## Alpha Wave Cycle Trap: Collective Illusion of 700,000 Participants

According to data statistics, the current number of Alpha participants has reached 500,000 to 700,000. This figure alone is quite revealing. But even more bizarre is that, amid the continuous decline in profits, the number of participants has not decreased; instead, it shows an opposite trend of growth. What is really hidden behind this?

## "Pattern Belief" Created by Historical Cycles

Looking back at Alpha's development trajectory, there are two obvious periods of participant surges—the [$NXPC](/zh-TC/trade/NXPC_USDT) wave during Adventure Island and the [$XPL](/zh-TC/trade/XPL_USDT) rally during National Day. Each coin explosion event directly leads to a multiple increase in Alpha traders. It is precisely because of these repeatedly occurring "success stories" that people begin to believe in a seemingly regular logic— as long as they keep participating, they will eventually迎來 the next big profit window.

This way of thinking actually aligns well with human nature: we tend to look for patterns in historical data and then make decisions based on these "discoveries." But the problem is, the Alpha wave phenomenon itself is like a precisely designed market game.

## The Fundamental Shift Brought by Participant Critical Points

From the data comparison between March and April, an interesting phenomenon can be observed: both before NXPC and before XPL, there was a wave of obvious participant exits. Because some chose to quit, those who persisted actually gained more substantial returns. But now, the situation is completely different—profits are shrinking, yet the number of participants is increasing.

The 700,000 accounts have already reached a critical point. When the participant base is so large, even if there is some hot trend, it may be diluted and shattered by the massive participation. To put it vividly: whatever trend comes along, it will turn into "diao mao" (a slang term implying something worthless or degraded).

## The Perfect Replication of Altcoin Schemes

The current Alpha pattern has already been played out countless times in the altcoin market. The classic manipulation method is: pump → dump → wash out at low levels → pump again, repeating several rounds. Each round reinforces participants' "sense of pattern," making them believe that as long as they hold on, they will surely see a turnaround. But once the market maker completes the distribution, the curve truly never recovers.

The most dangerous part is not the market itself, but when most people "are unwilling to give up," this collective consensus becomes the biggest risk signal.

## Rational Choice

The Alpha wave phenomenon will continue to attract new participants because history has indeed proven its profitability potential. But at the current scale of 700,000 participants, relying on past cycle logic to make decisions may have already become a collective habitual thinking trap. Sometimes, giving up is the smartest decision.