Bitcoin hovers around the 120,000 mark, signaling a potential cycle top?

Looking back at the past year's market trend, Bitcoin's expected high point at the beginning of the year was $120,000, which ultimately reached a stage top at $126,000. This figure seems to surpass market expectations, but from the perspective of historical cycle patterns, it hints at a gradual weakening of the bull market.

**Cycle Rotation: Price Struggles During the Bear Market Phase**

According to the four-year halving cycle logic of Bitcoin, the market has officially entered the bear market phase. From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin is unlikely to quickly break through the 120,000 level to form sustained upward movement and instead faces correction pressure. Based on cycle theory projections, within the next two years (by 2028), Bitcoin's price is highly likely to oscillate repeatedly between $10,000 and $60,000, which is characteristic of bear market recovery.

**Breakout Expectations After 2028**

The time window for reaching new highs again, based on historical cycle analysis, should unfold after 2028. Currently, in 2026, the market will experience intense volatility, and participants need to prepare for a long-term battle. This phase is both a period of high risk and an opportunity for low-position deployment—whether one can grasp the direction amid chaos will be a key factor in determining subsequent gains.