International Oil Market Trends: Brent Crude Oil Slightly Rises, Changes in the Global Oil and Gas Industry Landscape

As the ОПЕК+ meeting is just three days away, international oil prices are showing a moderate upward trend. At 12:00 Beijing time, Brent crude oil futures are quoted at $71.95 per barrel, up $0.12 compared to the December 2 close; US WTI crude oil futures are at $68.16 per barrel, up $0.06 from the previous trading day. Although the gains in these two mainstream oil types are limited, they reflect a cautious optimistic sentiment in the market ahead of next Friday’s ОПЕК+ decision.

Central Asia Oil and Gas Dilemma and New Capacity Launch Intertwined

Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Energy, Alibek Zhamoyev, recently disclosed that the country’s largest oil field Tengiz has not yet returned to normal production. The super oil field with an annual capacity of 600,000 barrels per day is undergoing routine maintenance, leading to a significant drop in daily output in November to 430,000 barrels per day, a decrease of 170,000 barrels month-on-month. Zhamoyev stated that since Chevron resumed production at Tengiz in October, there is still no specific timetable for full recovery.

Meanwhile, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) announced the start of commercial production at the Jinzhou 23-2 oilfield in the Bohai Sea. This heavy oil project, exclusively developed and operated by CNPC and located in 13 meters of water depth, is expected to reach peak capacity by 2027—170,000 barrels of oil and gas equivalent per day. The fluctuations of old and new capacities add uncertainty to the global oil supply landscape.

North American Drilling Boom Reaches Ten-Year High

The Canadian Association of Oil & Gas Contractors (CAOEC) released its annual drilling forecast at the end of November, indicating that the number of active rigs in Canada is expected to increase to 190 in 2025, up from 178 in 2024. This would be the highest since 2014—when the US shale boom caused a global oil price crash, the number of rigs in Canada reached as high as 358. Although the current recovery has not yet returned to previous peaks, the upward trend is clear, reflecting increased attractiveness of oil and gas export corridors.

Geopolitical Conflicts Reshape Global Energy Flows

Since Donald Trump was elected US President, his envoy team has been pushing for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine and is considering lifting Western sanctions to facilitate Russia’s troop withdrawal. Since the conflict erupted in February 2022, Western embargoes and sanctions on Russian energy have forced Russia’s oil exports to reroute through third-party markets, increasing transportation costs and significantly reducing energy revenues. More severely, after Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned natural gas company, ceased fulfilling long-term supply contracts in summer 2022, Russian gas imports to Europe have fallen to a decade low, causing a major shift in energy diplomacy.

US Gulf of Mexico Production Cuts and Global Market Turbulence

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the latest statistics at the end of November, showing that US crude oil production in September decreased by 1.2% month-on-month, with an average daily output of 13.2 million barrels, down from 13.4 million barrels in August. This decline was driven by Hurricane Franklin ravaging the Gulf of Mexico, forcing regional oil and gas operators to cut back on extraction. Although production remains at record high levels, it has been at a high plateau for several months, still slightly above the 13.18 million barrels of the same period last year, demonstrating the resilience of the US shale oil industry.

Global oil supply and demand continue to evolve under multiple factors, and the fluctuations in фьючерсы на нефть (oil futures) reflect the market’s comprehensive assessment of future policies, capacities, and geopolitical dynamics.

(Data sources: Independent International Energy Commodity Market Agency Argus, US Energy Information Administration, Canadian Energy Contractors Association)