#市场触底了吗？ The Bank of Japan's "historic rate hike" enters the countdown, becoming the market's唯一指挥棒

The Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting on December 18-19 has officially concluded, with the Policy Board unanimously approving a 25 basis point increase to 0.75%, reaching the highest level since 1995. Previously, Japan's quarterly short-term outlook survey showed that large manufacturers' confidence rose to a four-year high, and wage growth remained strong, further supporting the decision to raise interest rates. After the announcement, yen arbitrage funds continued to exit, global risk asset sentiment became more cautious, and the previously independent short-term crypto market was increasingly questioned. Market attention shifted to the central bank's future rate hike path guidance, which has been the core driver of the crypto market decline since December.

The market has clearly shifted from "high-level oscillation" to an "event-driven downward trend." The overnight rise and fall is a confirmation signal of the trend, not just a simple correction, representing a contest between short-term technical oversold conditions and expectations of macro liquidity tightening. The former may trigger a rebound, while the latter dominates the trend direction. The decisive event now is the Bank of Japan's rate decision and statement tone (expected to be announced this afternoon Beijing time), which will be the ultimate judge of today's and this week's market movements.

Secondly, the convergence of Federal Reserve policy signals is also crucial. Several officials have expressed diverging views, and whether a unified policy direction will form will directly affect the liquidity environment of risk assets. Lastly, the year-end tightening pressure on liquidity remains, with institutions taking profits at key levels and signs of outflows from digital asset funds, which may intensify short-term volatility.

In summary, the market is currently in a critical period dominated by external tightening expectations. Long-term capital accumulation has built a potential "moat" for the market, but the short-term trend has been preliminarily set by the Japan Bank's decision. Short-term operations should remain extremely cautious, further reduce trading frequency, focus on trend opportunities after key price breakthroughs, and wait for clear signals from the Federal Reserve and stable year-end liquidity sentiment before executing precise strategies!