Let's analyze the position logic of this contract trading.

The total open interest is 38 million, with the main long side holding 19 million at an average price of 0.33. The opposing short side holds about 5 million positions, opened around 0.29. The remaining 14 million retail positions are estimated based on the large trader's holdings, roughly 9.5 million short positions against 4.5 million long positions. Calculating this way, there are a total of 24 million long positions versus 19 million short positions.

From another perspective, the longs only managed to push the price up here by absorbing 19 million of the shorts. This also explains why the main long positions' cost basis is so high — they need to continuously absorb shorts to maintain upward momentum.

The key point is this: as long as the opposing 5 million short positions are still open and unsettled, it will be very difficult for the longs to continue pushing higher. Ultimately, the main players still need to rely on new buy orders to offload and realize profits. Without a steady influx of buyers, unrealized gains are always just on paper.

So if you're thinking about going long now, you'd better be prepared for a significant drop in case the market turns against you.