Retail investors watch the market, smart money looks on-chain—on-chain data can help you see through #美国证券交易委员会推进数字资产监管框架创新 's next move

Currently, both bulls and bears are eagerly awaiting that candlestick that will set the tone for the direction. Should we continue to rally, or is it time to pause and catch our breath? The key depends on how institutions and big players are operating.

**1. Latest signals from on-chain and macro perspectives**

According to on-chain analysis tools, a leading institution withdrew 720 BTC from a major exchange 10 minutes ago, which at current prices is roughly $62.79 million. What does this large withdrawal indicate? It usually means the holder is optimistic about the future market.

On the macro level, the situation isn't very friendly—US latest inflation data remains stubborn, and market hopes for rate cuts have been dashed, causing risk assets to suffer. But the fundamentals in the crypto space haven't collapsed. On-chain data shows that long-term holders still have their chips securely locked in, with no signs of movement; meanwhile, Bitcoin balances on exchanges are slowly flowing out, indicating true believers remain steadfast. This confidence is the foundation for the price to stay stable.

**2. What does technical analysis say?**

Short-term moving averages still maintain a bullish pattern, providing support around the 122,000 to 125,000 range. The current price has already diverged from the short-term moving averages, suggesting a pullback might be needed, but this correction is part of a healthy recovery process.

Volume is interesting—during the rally, volume decreased; during declines, there was no significant increase. This is a typical stalemate between bulls and bears, with the market waiting for a new variable to break the deadlock.

On the four-hour chart, MACD shows the fast and slow lines converging and the histogram shrinking, indicating that short-term upward momentum is waning. At this point, the market either needs time to build momentum or a price correction to repair technical indicators.

Markets often move forward slowly amid hesitation. Now is the time to build psychological resilience. Hold when you should, watch when you need to—no rush.