#美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 Mid-December's correction, where exactly is the bottom? Need to think it through carefully. Looking back at historical records: the last bear market dropped from 6.9 to 3.25, a range of 3.65 million, and the rebound only returned to 4.85—about half of the decline; then 4.85 was pushed down to 1.55, another 3.3 million drop, and the rebound was still quite strong. Considering this rhythm, currently, $BTC from 126,000 down to 80,000 is a drop of 46,000, so a reasonable rebound height would be around 23,000—according to this logic, reaching 103,000 would be good, but what if it can't break 100,000? Then I have to be honest: the entry point for the next bear market's spot market might be below 60,000.

This breaks my previous judgment of bottoming out at 70,800 for spot buying. So, the high point of this rebound is indeed critical. Currently, resistance is around 103,000. If it breaks above that, caution is needed; breaking above 100,000 could be a signal to consider short positions—that's the long-term plan to follow. But don't overthink it; the market has its temperament. Let's see how the first step performs before making any decisions, to avoid bad decisions based on wishful thinking. $ETH and $BNB 's rhythm also can't break out of this framework.