#大户持仓动态 The latest actions by the Bank of Japan truly startled the market— the benchmark interest rate jumped directly from 0.5% to 0.75%, marking the first such significant move in 11 months. The number itself may not be unfamiliar, but its implications carry substantial weight: a 30-year high in interest rates and a clear signal of the global liquidity shift from "loose" to "tightening."

As soon as this news broke, the reaction in international capital markets was straightforward. Yen inflows accelerated, and traditional financial assets began to come under pressure. Everyone was pondering the same question: with the central bank tightening liquidity, how much longer can the crypto market hold?

On the surface, the answer seems somewhat pessimistic. During tightening cycles, investors' risk appetite indeed shrinks, with high-volatility assets bearing the brunt. Cryptocurrencies, being liquidity-sensitive assets, are often the most directly impacted. But this way of thinking only sees half the story. Those who have experienced several cycles understand: when central banks worldwide collectively tighten, non-sovereign assets not controlled by any single country’s central bank can become a refuge for some capital. The underlying logic of Bitcoin and Ethereum appears even more resilient at this moment.

Another detail easily overlooked is that Japan itself is one of the most active regions for crypto trading globally. When the domestic yen accelerates its appreciation, where will Japanese funds seeking safe-haven allocations flow? The BTC/JPY trading pair might face real tests. Historical experience shows that during macro shifts, this kind of contrarian capital flow repeatedly plays out.

The reality is: in the short term, there is indeed pressure for adjustment, but such adjustments also present opportunities for rebalancing. Holding key support levels for Bitcoin and closely monitoring the retracement points of mainstream coins are what clear-headed participants should focus on. Market rules are changing, risk factors are evolving, but a trader who truly understands cycles knows that in times of high uncertainty, discipline, common sense, and following established routines are essential.