#BinanceABCs The Bank of Japan raised interest rates by 25 basis points as scheduled. Let's discuss the subsequent impact of this move.

First, we need to understand a mechanism—the Japanese rate hike mainly impacts BTC prices through "yen arbitrage trading." Simply put: investors previously borrowed cheap yen to buy high-risk assets like BTC. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive, and the yen appreciates. Investors are forced to sell assets to pay off debts, causing risk markets to be hammered down.

However, this time, the market has already priced in a 97% probability of the rate hike, so the current lack of volatility is normal. Even a rebound wouldn't be surprising—"exhausted bad news" can actually boost the market, which is also normal.

I previously made a chart comparison. After the Bank of Japan raised rates three times in March 2024, July 2024, and January 2025, BTC fell 20%-30% within the following 4-6 weeks. But to be serious, other news definitely contributed to these declines during that period. Will this time follow the same pattern? The key still depends on how the Bank of Japan proceeds afterward and how the major central banks like the Federal Reserve respond—because the global environment has long changed.

In the long term, if the Bank of Japan starts a series of rate hikes in 2026, the cost of yen borrowing worldwide will continue to rise, market risk appetite will be suppressed for a long time, and assets like BTC will naturally face pressure. Plus, the Federal Reserve is likely already nearing the end of its rate-cutting cycle... next year will indeed be quite challenging.