The NVT golden cross for BTC has appeared again, and the market is starting to promote the narrative of "valuation reset." To be honest, I've heard this explanation too many times.

Looking back at historical records makes it clear—this golden cross has appeared three times before, and after each occurrence, BTC has not fallen short. On average, the decline is around 25%. Is this called a reset? From another perspective, it seems more like major funds are doing some kind of operation as a cover.

The indicator itself is fine; the key is that market participants are too familiar with this setup. When signals become transparent enough and many people know about them, their predictive power begins to diminish. It's like a routine that, when overused, becomes easier to counter with reverse operations.

In the short term, I lean towards the view that the price will test the 82k support. If this level cannot hold, the subsequent correction space might be larger than expected. Of course, the market is always full of variables, and uncertainty is the norm. Proper risk management is more important than anything else.