A recent industry research institution has released a 2026 crypto market outlook report, providing a systematic analysis of the market environment for the coming year.

The core insight is quite interesting—although the US economy has shown considerable resilience, overall uncertainty remains high. More importantly, they believe that the crypto market environment in the first half of 2026 will be more similar to the stage in 1996 rather than the internet boom period of 1999.

What is the logic behind this? Simply put, 1996 was the early stage of internet commercialization, with much infrastructure still being built and bubbles not yet obvious. By 1999, it was a frenzy with rampant speculation. Looking at the crypto market, next year might still be a period of accumulation—macro conditions are supportive but full of variables, regulatory frameworks are gradually improving, and technology and applications are continuously evolving, but it has not yet reached a stage of full-scale explosion.

What does this mean for participants? It may require a more rational assessment of risks, while focusing on long-term fundamentals rather than short-term fluctuations.