The Bank of Japan dropped a heavy bomb, but the market didn't explode. This statement sounds a bit absurd, but recent events are just that outrageous.

Last week, the Bank of Japan announced a 25 basis point rate hike, pushing interest rates directly to 0.75%, the highest in nearly 30 years. The era of "cheap yen" officially came to an end. According to previous patterns, such policy shifts usually trigger a massive sell-off in global assets. The historical data is clear—each of the last three times the BOJ raised rates, Bitcoin fell by 20%-30% within 4 to 6 weeks afterward.

But this time, it's very strange. Bitcoin remains steady in the range of $84,000 to $87,000, even showing some resilience. The expected panic and sell-offs simply didn't happen. This "black swan" that has been widely discussed for half a year has ultimately landed softly.

Where did the problem lie? The answer isn't that simple.

**The Game Rules Have Changed**

To understand this contrast, first, we need to grasp what "yen carry trade" is. For years, a classic strategy among global investors has been: borrow yen (with near-zero interest), then invest the money in high-yield assets like US stocks, US bonds, or Bitcoin. It sounds simple, but this approach has formed a significant part of global market liquidity.

Once Japan actually raises rates, borrowing costs rise accordingly, destroying the economic viability of this game. The historical logic is clear—arbitrage opportunities disappear, investors are forced to unwind their positions, and a chain reaction of sell-offs and deleveraging occurs worldwide. That’s why the market had been nervously waiting for this moment.

**The Rift Between Reality and Expectations**

But in reality, the yen did indeed hike rates, and the data is there, yet the market's reaction was far less intense than expected. Bitcoin's price barely moved, let alone crashed. This abnormal calm itself has become the most informative signal.

What does it indicate? It suggests that the real battleground has long since shifted. Market participants may have already priced in this expectation in advance, or the global liquidity landscape has changed in ways we haven't fully recognized. It could also be that, under the backdrop of the US dollar remaining strong and global central banks maintaining relatively loose policies, a simple Japanese rate hike can't shake the market's fundamentals.

When the traditional script fails, it often signals that a new market logic is forming. This time, the BOJ's rate hike seems more like a landmark event, marking the fading of the old arbitrage era, but without a fully established new set of market rules. During this vacuum, Bitcoin and other assets have exhibited this strange calm.