Recently, I came across a strange story: a trader with high leverage and an unrealized loss of nearly $80 million suddenly publicly calls for long positions on BTC to reach 106,000 and ETH to hit 4,500. Even more outrageous is that behind him is an antique wallet that hasn't been touched in 8 years, containing 50,000 Bitcoins. If this script were adapted for the big screen, it would probably seem too far-fetched.

Honestly, this guy's track record is indeed extraordinary. Before the crash last October, his precise short positions earned him $100 million, and his timing for bottoming out and catching tops was almost divine, perfectly aligned with policy milestones. The problem is, past performance is just that—past.

Now? His account is a mess. The 5x ETH long position is floating at a 58% loss, the 5x BTC long at 37%, and the most exaggerated is the 20x SOL long—losses soaring to 292%. Overall unrealized losses amount to $78.3 million, and the margin is on the brink of collapse. Everyone understands that high leverage in such volatile markets is like walking a tightrope—any small reverse move can turn a "master" into a "blow-up."

So here’s the question: why would a heavily losing big player suddenly start openly bullish? There are mainly two possibilities. One is strategic deception—using influence to artificially pump the market and create an exit for their nearly exploded positions. The other is that they might have a backup plan—such as unmonitored on-chain hedge positions, borrowing buffers, or holding undisclosed market catalysts.

But based on past patterns, the first scenario is usually more likely. That’s why, when a heavily losing big player starts calling the shots, retail investors should first ask themselves: am I the one being cut?