The Bank of Japan's recent rate hike operation is probably making many people stare blankly at the market chart. But what I want to say is that rate hikes themselves are actually no longer new. The key variable is not whether they will raise rates or not, but how Ueda and Shinji will speak tonight.

My experience over these eight years of watching global markets tells me that the market has long since digested the issue of rate hikes. Whether it's the stock market, forex, or our crypto circle's reactions, fundamentally they are all betting on "whether they will raise rates or not." Now that the decision has been made, the game rules have completely changed—the contradiction has shifted from "whether to raise rates" to "how many more times they can raise."

To put it another way: it used to be a gamble on "whether this chapter will be tested," but now the exam is set in stone. The real question is how big the "exam scope" (the future rate hike space) the examiner ( Ueda) will draw.

This will have a more intense impact on the crypto market than on traditional markets. The reason is simple: any fluctuation in global liquidity is a life-or-death signal for high-risk assets like ours.

Let me break down the two scenarios:

**If Ueda and Shinji speak hawkishly**—for example, hinting at further rate hikes in 2026—expectations for liquidity tightening will be directly maximized. In this scenario, the yen is likely to strengthen significantly, the dollar will depreciate accordingly, and the crypto market may face capital outflows. Mainstream coins could experience a pattern of initial suppression followed by a decline, so short-term caution against pullbacks is especially necessary.

**If the speech leans dovish**—being vague or hinting that the pace of rate hikes will slow down—expectations for liquidity tightening will ease. In this case, safe-haven funds might flow back into high-risk assets, giving the crypto market a chance to breathe.