2025-12-20 02:50:33

#BTC资金流动性 Seeing Bitcoin at 88,000 dollars each just feels expensive? Take a look at this set of on-chain data and you'll understand—

The surface numbers are impressive: a total of 19.68 million BTC have been mined out of the 19.68 million available, with only about 1.32 million left to mine. But the truth is often hidden in the details. According to on-chain analysis, roughly one-third of these 19.68 million BTC have been permanently lost. What does that mean? Early players hoarded coins, but lost their mnemonic phrases, so this portion is effectively destroyed—about 5 to 6 million coins have disappeared this way.

How much of the remaining coins are truly in circulation? Let's do some calculations: approximately 1 million coins are held by governments' reserves; over 1 million are held by the US spot ETF; BlackRock alone holds over 700,000; MicroStrategy has about 600,000; Satoshi's wallet contains over 1 million; plus the long-term HODLers among miners and large holders—this pile adds up to nearly 15 million coins.

In other words, only about 4 million BTC are actually tradable on the secondary market.

What does this mean? If all these big holders hold steady, how low can the price go?

So, don't be dazzled by the current numbers when hoarding coins. The key is how much your holdings represent within this total supply. Obsessing over price fluctuations can make you easily swept away by the tide of history.

BTC0.04%

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MentalWealthHarvester

· 10h ago

Wow, only 4 million tokens are in circulation? When you think about it this way, we're all competing for scarce assets. No wonder the big players are holding on tightly.

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DaoResearcher

· 10h ago

From the perspective of token economics, this analysis of the supply-side constraint model is interesting. It is worth noting that the conclusion that the actual circulating supply is only 4 million tokens—assuming the hypothesis is valid—actually validates the liquidity scarcity thesis I have been advocating. I suggest everyone first review the actual on-chain UTXO distribution data, rather than just listening to the conclusions. The issue of incentive incompatibility also exists here: the game-theoretic equilibrium between large holders' motivation to hoard tokens and the market's sufficient liquidity is fundamentally unsolvable.

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CryptoComedian