The Federal Reserve's policy direction is changing. Goldman Sachs Chief Analyst Kay Haigh recently pointed out that the Fed's recent "preemptive rate cuts" have come to an end. Simply put: want to continue easing? Unless employment data shows a significant deterioration, don't expect the Fed to loosen policy easily in the near term.

What does this mean? Just look at the latest internal statements from the Federal Reserve. There was a hard dissenting vote in this meeting, and soft dissent is hidden in the dot plot; hawkish voices are gaining strength. Especially in the policy statement, the Fed re-emphasized phrases like "the extent and timing of future policy"—on the surface to reassure members with different views, but essentially sending a signal: rate cuts are not impossible, but only if the labor market first shows enough pressure.

This means a new round of market game theory. #美国就业数据表现强劲超出预期 $ETH and other risk assets—what impact will they face? First, a re-pricing of interest rate expectations. The Fed's stance shifting from dovish to neutral or even hawkish means the market's optimistic outlook on future liquidity needs to be adjusted. Stocks, bonds, exchange rates—almost all asset classes may face reassessment.

For traders, the key is to closely monitor employment data. Non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate—these figures will directly influence the Fed's next move. As long as the labor market can "hold up," the Fed has no reason to rush into rate cuts. Conversely, if there is a clear employment downturn, the market will see new opportunities.

At this stage, a more cautious approach is needed: don't be blinded by short-term rebounds; the wind direction has shifted. Internal disagreements within the Fed are widening, indicating increasing policy uncertainty. How will the situation develop? Can the employment market continue to be pressured, or will it quickly show signs of recession? These will be key factors in determining the market's direction.