#BTC资金流动性 Hayes's $200,000 argument, is it really worth going all-in?

Recently, the crypto market has exploded again—someone claims that the Fed's new policy is equivalent to "QE," and Bitcoin is expected to hit $200,000. At first glance, it sounds exciting, but upon closer inspection, the logic behind it and his actual actions seem to be out of sync.

**News ≠ Action, There Are Tricks Behind the Talk**

His "RMP=QE" theory sounds reasonable—liquidity indeed can push up asset prices. But the problem is, what happens when large funds publicly remain bullish but quietly reduce their positions? Data shows he has transferred out over 500 ETH recently, a detail worth pondering.

It's like someone shouting "gold prices will rise," but then selling gold themselves. If traders follow the trend and buy high, they are essentially providing liquidity—acting as the bag-holder.

**The Logic Chain of the Fed's Money Printing**

RMP indeed reflects the trend of dollar depreciation; in the long run, Bitcoin's role as an inflation hedge is valid. But short-term market movements often go against this—its purpose might be to set the stage for a bigger dump later.

The "March sentiment peak" he mentions is likely the moment when smart money gradually withdraws, and retail investors are frantically buying in. Historical trends show that such timing often signals a reverse operation.

**Don't Be a Slave to Information, Be an Observer of the Rhythm**

How to respond specifically? Here are some ideas:

1. Focus on the movements of big players rather than their statements. If they sell, wait; if they accumulate, buy in stages—this is not about chasing highs and selling lows.

2. Abandon the mindset of getting rich in one shot. Fluctuations between 80,000 and 100,000 are normal. Instead of going all-in, use grid strategies: buy more if it drops below 80,000, reduce positions gradually if it breaks above 100,000. This way, you participate in the upside while managing risk.

3. Always keep some ammunition reserved. The target of $200,000 sounds great, but history shows it can fall back to $50,000 from a high. Keep more than 40% in cash reserves to have room for action during extreme market conditions.

**The Essence of the Crypto World Is Liquidity Games**

No one can predict the market, but what can be seen clearly is: there are always stories being spun to attract traffic and funds, which ultimately turn into the storyteller's chips. Your choice is simple—are you a provider of liquidity (getting harvested), or a controller of liquidity (sharing the gains)?

A correction can happen at any time, but it’s not to scare you—it's an opportunity to lay out your plans. The key is your mindset—whether to follow blindly or analyze rationally—this determines whether you profit or lose in the end.

$BTC