This week's Ethereum movement has indeed been quite confusing. After the inflation data was released, many thought there would be a sigh of relief this time, but the market still remains so awkward. Will it surge to 3150 to push for a short squeeze, or will it directly crash to 2880 or even 2600? Both news and technical analysis are telling stories, but they are completely different versions.

Let's start with the news side. The US December inflation rate hit 4.2%, exceeding expectations. At first glance, it seems like bad news. But interestingly, major institutions are quietly increasing their positions. BlackRock's Ethereum ETF holdings have already reached 2.46 million ETH, with an average cost basis around $2800. Currently, the price is hovering near that cost, clearly trapped, yet they continue to accumulate. The logic behind this is quite clear — after Ethereum 2.0 upgrade, staking yields have stabilized between 6% and 8%, and Gas fees have been cut in half. This fundamental improvement is viewed by institutions as a three-year outlook on ecosystem development, not just short-term price fluctuations.

Looking at the technical side, the MACD golden cross has appeared, but it happened below the zero line. This is the most deceptive part. Many beginners get excited when they see a golden cross, but don’t forget, in a downtrend, a golden cross below zero often just signals a brief pause in the decline, and the market may just be "tired of falling and taking a break before continuing downward." This is not a signal of a reversal; it’s a setup for a trap.

Key support and resistance levels are now especially important. The 3150 level above is like an ironclad top; without enough volume to break through, don’t even think about it. The real critical line is 2880 — once this level is effectively broken, support at 2600 or even lower will be exposed. Currently, the price is oscillating near these key levels, making the risks and opportunities very clear.