There's an interesting detail worth pondering. On December 19th, the Bank of Japan unanimously approved a decision to raise interest rates from 0.5% to 0.75%, the highest level in nearly thirty years. According to the usual script, this should have been a "thunderous moment" for global financial markets—risk assets trembling in fear, selling off aggressively, and fleeing for safety.

But in reality, the opposite scenario played out. The expected crash didn't happen; instead, the market took a deep breath. Risk assets rebounded, and there were no signs of the yen strengthening.

Why? Simply put, what the market fears is never "what is already known," but "what might happen." This rate hike was actually priced in long ago. When the truth was revealed and the Bank of Japan promised that the monetary environment would remain "relatively accommodative," the biggest uncertainty dissipated. It felt like waiting for a storm that finally arrived, only to find the rain wasn't as intense as feared, and everyone could finally relax.

The question is—how long can this relief last?

Don't celebrate too early. There’s a more troubling signal behind this rate hike. The last "source of cheap funds" globally—the Bank of Japan—is gradually and resolutely shutting it down. The BOJ has explicitly stated that if the economy and prices stay on track, further rate hikes are likely.

What does this mean? The once-supportive "yen carry trade" that underpinned high-risk assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies, is gradually unraveling. Although 25 basis points may seem small, it signifies a long-term reversal—a tide of global liquidity easing is beginning to ebb.

This current rebound isn’t necessarily a good sign; rather, it’s more like a "technical correction" within a macro tightening cycle. The story of boiling frogs in warm water might really be about to unfold.