#数字资产市场洞察 Short-term bearish warning for Bitcoin: Starting with macro analyst Luke Gromen's shift in perspective

Recently, macroeconomic analyst Luke Gromen expressed concerns about Bitcoin's short-term trajectory on a podcast. This seasoned investor, who has been actively accumulating below $30,000 since late 2022 and has held his position without change, has shifted his stance, which warrants serious attention from the market.

He presented three core points. First is the high correlation between Bitcoin and tech stocks. Although their movements are closely linked, Luke pointed out that the real bottleneck is not chip supply but electricity. When AI applications experience explosive growth, electricity shortages will become a limiting factor for the entire tech industry, thereby dragging down digital asset performance—this is not alarmism but a calm observation of industry realities.

Second is Bitcoin's relative disadvantage compared to gold. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold performs steadily, while Bitcoin has lacked breakthrough progress within the same cycle. More critically, the liquidity environment faces a dilemma: either flood the market with liquidity to stimulate or tighten monetary policy. Neither scenario creates an ideal growth environment for cryptocurrencies. Without new capital inflows, upward price pressure is evident.

The third threat comes from the technical realm—advancements in quantum computing. Luke believes that within 2 to 9 years, quantum computing could pose a substantial threat to existing cryptographic algorithms. Once the difficulty of cracking them significantly decreases, Bitcoin's security foundation will be challenged. This is not a distant sci-fi hypothesis but a long-term risk that requires serious assessment.

Interestingly, Tether's latest moves seem to send a similar signal—they are increasing their investments in AI and gold, with gold even surpassing Bitcoin on their balance sheet. This structural adjustment may reflect market participants' reassessment of risk appetite in the coming months.

What are your thoughts on these viewpoints? Feel free to share your judgment in the comments.