#以太坊行情解读 Market "False Alarm" Triggered by Japan's 25 Basis Point Rate Hike

Yesterday's market movement was quite interesting—the anticipated "bomb" of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates didn't cause much turbulence after all. Everyone held their breath expecting a sharp decline, but instead, the yen hit a one-month low while Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to rise. This "divergence" is driven by a key concept called expectation gap.

The phenomenon is simple: when certainty is on the table, it actually eliminates the greatest uncertainty. Previously, everyone was wondering "what if the central bank raises rates," but now that the rate hike has been implemented, cautious capital dares to enter the market. This indicates that global appetite for high-yield assets has never waned; it’s just waiting for a reason to act. Although rate hikes sound harsh, they provide the market with a clear signal.

The Fed's rate cut expectations are also heating up. The December rate cut has already been implemented, and weak CPI data along with unexpectedly high unemployment rates are paving the way for further cuts. This week, Fed officials have repeatedly expressed support for easing, making the expectation of continued loosening in January increasingly solid. In this context, cryptocurrencies naturally rise along with the market.

**Bitcoin's Short-Term Rhythm**

$BTC is currently above 88,000. On the daily chart, the price rebounded from the lower band and is now facing resistance at the middle band around 89,500. The 4-hour MA5 moving average has already crossed bullish, indicating short-term momentum is still building. The 90,000 psychological barrier is also a key resistance level that needs to be broken convincingly. On the downside, the 86,500 and 86,000 zones serve as recent support levels; a break below could prompt a reassessment of the trend.

How high this rebound can go depends mainly on whether it can break through the MA60 resistance line. Currently, the momentum suggests a higher probability of continued short-term recovery.

**Ethereum's Upward Channel**

$ETH broke above 2900 yesterday and maintained strength, but is now facing resistance near 3000. However, the 4-hour and 1-hour moving averages are both bullish, providing solid support for the price. MACD is still expanding, which usually indicates room for further gains.

Breaking through the 3050–3150 range would be a significant resistance for this rebound. Support levels have shifted to 2920 and 2850, both of which are critical zones.

**Weekend Market Rhythm**

Market volatility over the weekend is expected to be limited, with a slow recovery likely. However, the strength of this recovery will depend on trading volume.

**Quick Reference**

BTC Short-Term Target Range:
- Support: 86500-86000
- Resistance: 89500-90000

ETH Short-Term Target Range:
- Support: 2920-2850
- Resistance: 3050-3150