The chip concentration level of #美联储降息预期升温 $BTC is actually a very useful volatility warning tool. Simply put, if the spot price stays within a 5% range and the chip concentration exceeds 13%, we should sound the alarm; if it jumps above 15%, it’s basically entering a high-risk zone. The more chips accumulate, the higher the chance of triggering volatility, and the more intense the swings.

I already gave a warning on September 30th, when the chip concentration had already surged to 15%. What was the result? $BTC quickly experienced a wave of breaking historical highs with a strong rebound. By November 1st, the concentration even reached a vertical record of 17.6%. After that, it slid from $110,000 all the way down to $85,000.

Here’s a common mistake many people make. When they see this signal, their first reaction is “Should I bet on it going up or down?” Actually, it’s the opposite. A high chip concentration only tells you “a storm is coming,” but it’s impossible to predict which way the wind will blow. The key isn’t guessing the direction but using the volatility itself to make money. For example, during the November 1st rally, using a standard ATM straddle options strategy, you could have doubled your gains with no need to bet on whether it would go up or down.

Now? The chip concentration of $BTC is at 11%, which is a mid-to-high level, already entering the 13% warning zone. But this level isn’t enough to trigger a “chain reaction” of intense volatility. Probabilistically, the chance of large short-term fluctuations isn’t very high, and from a chip structure perspective, the conditions aren’t quite there yet.

Next, we should keep an eye on two major events: the CPI data at 9:30 PM on the 18th, and the Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision on the 19th. Unless the data exceeds expectations to an absurd degree, the market impact should be contained within “small fluctuations,” unlikely to cause a scene like August 5th last year (when the chip concentration was also as high as 15%).

My advice is to continue monitoring this indicator. Once the chip concentration spikes again above 13%, I will follow up with analysis immediately. The current situation is quite stable, so there’s no need to be overly nervous.