The competition for the new Federal Reserve Chair has entered a critical stage. Trump recently completed a round of intensive interviews, with the list of four final candidates essentially finalized. He announced that he will reveal the final nomination within a few weeks.

There is a clear "selection criterion" for this round of candidate screening—those who advocate for significant rate cuts are more likely to succeed. Trump has been very open about this, even stating that interest rates must be sharply lowered to ease mortgage pressures. Currently, the Fed's interest rate is held between 3.5% and 3.75%, and his goal is to push it further down.

The four final candidates are: Kevin Hasset (former White House economic advisor, recently described CPI data as "explosively good"), Kevin Waugh (former Fed governor, dovish on monetary policy), Christopher Waller (current Fed governor, has met with Trump, leaning towards steady rate cuts), and Rick Rieder (BlackRock executive, expected to complete interviews by the end of the year).

Of particular note, Trump has spoken highly of Waller, calling his performance "excellent." Meanwhile, the previously favored Fed governor Bowman has quietly exited the race.

What signals are the markets sending? The November CPI increased by 2.7% year-over-year, indicating that inflation is indeed easing. However, New York Fed President Williams poured cold water on this, pointing out that due to missing October data, this figure might be "underestimated by 0.1%" due to technical factors, and we need December data to draw firm conclusions.

Within the Fed, attitudes are not entirely aligned. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee appears optimistic, considering the data "encouraging," and if inflation remains moderate, there could be room for rate cuts next year. Waller also supports the direction of rate cuts but remains cautious—no need to rush, just steadily move toward a neutral interest rate.

In summary: the new chair candidate will soon emerge, with Trump pushing hard for a "significant rate cut" agenda. While inflation data shows signs of easing, Fed officials are still watching the data trends closely. The true direction of monetary policy will ultimately depend on economic data.