#大户持仓动态 Ethereum Technical Quick Read for December 20

Lazy Person's Summary: The daily chart still shows a bullish stance, the 4-hour is in a recovery upward move, and the 2-hour looks somewhat neutral. In the short term, expect fluctuations within the 2950-3010 range. If it can hold above 3010, look towards 3050-3080; if it breaks below 2950, then watch the 2900-2870 support line.

**Data Snapshot**
Currently trading around 2965 USDT, with today’s range from 2957 to 3008, a 4.5% increase. On the daily chart, the price has already broken above the MA7, MA25, and MA99 lines (at 2959, 2897, and 2913 respectively), with the Bollinger Band middle line at 2930. RSI is at 52, still neutral leaning slightly bullish; MACD shows the red histogram gradually expanding, with the fast line above the signal line — all indicating positive signals.

The 4-hour cycle is more evident. The MACD golden cross is still ongoing, with the red histogram clearly expanding; RSI at 58, not yet overbought (overbought above 70); price is above the Bollinger Band middle line at 2940, which acts as support.

The 2-hour chart looks average. RSI at 51, very neutral; after pulling back from the 2-hour Bollinger Band middle line at 2955, there’s a rebound. Short-term bias is bullish but lacks momentum.

**Support and Resistance Levels**
Looking downward, 2950 is a key level — the daily and 4-hour middle lines resonate here, making it a solid support. Below that is 2900, which has seen dense trading volume previously and can hold. If it truly breaks 2900, then watch 2870, a relatively strong bottom.

On the upside, 3010 is today’s high and will likely face resistance. 3050 is an integer psychological level, often quite effective. Above that is 3080, the upper boundary of recent oscillations.

**Trading Strategy**
For bulls: if the 2-hour chart revisits the 2950-2955 zone (coinciding with daily support and 2-hour middle line), consider a small long position; set stop-loss at 2920, keeping risk within about 1%. Targets can be split into two parts — first take half profit at 3010 (about 2% gain), then at 3050 (about 3% gain), and the remaining 10% with a trailing stop-loss, moving it up by 1.5 points for every 2-point rise.

For bears: opportunities are limited. Only if the price stalls between 3010-3020 and the 4-hour MACD shows signs of a death cross, consider a small short position; stop-loss at 3040, with profit targets back at 2960-2950.

If the price breaks below 2950 and the 4-hour MACD weakens, it’s better to hold off and wait for confirmation of support around 2900-2870.

**Risk Warnings**
If overall market sentiment weakens, Ethereum is likely to retrace along with Bitcoin. Keep an eye on Bitcoin’s performance in the 88000-90000 range, which could be a turning point.

Position Management: Do not risk more than 1.5% of total capital on a single trade; do not allocate more than 20% of your portfolio to one coin; strict stop-loss execution is essential.