Recently, a major research report has been making waves in the market, with a leading investment bank setting a 12-month target price of $143,000 for Bitcoin. Currently, Bitcoin is around $88,000, which implies nearly 62% upside potential. But what is the logic behind this number? Is it supported by real money or just a dream? Let’s break it down.

The reason this forecast dares to be so bold hinges on three key factors. Missing any one of them is not an option.

First, Wall Street must continue pouring money into spot ETFs. Second, relevant US policies need to advance smoothly. Third, global investors’ enthusiasm for risk assets must remain intact. It sounds simple, but each one is crucial to the subsequent scale of funds.

**Spot ETFs Become the True Engine**

The report estimates that about $15 billion will flow into the crypto market via spot ETFs over the next year. This is not just about traders buying and selling on exchanges; it signifies that Bitcoin has officially entered the realm of mainstream asset allocation. Once in, it effectively ties on-chain liquidity to Wall Street’s risk appetite.

In other words, if the S&P 500 or Nasdaq continues upward, that optimism will flow through the ETF channel into Bitcoin. By the second half of next year, their movements will become increasingly synchronized. To put it bluntly but directly: "As long as US stocks don’t crash, Bitcoin won’t die."

**Where Does the Number Come From?**

With $15 billion of new capital entering, through futures leverage and the cycle among market makers, theoretically, Bitcoin’s total market cap could be pushed up by about $1 trillion. Assuming current holdings distribution and circulating supply remain stable, the price will naturally approach that $140,000 level. The logic is straightforward, but the key premise is critical.

**Regulatory Attitude Is the Real Anchor**

Ultimately, whether institutions dare to enter in large scale depends on signals from policy. If regulations are friendly, institutions will have reason to increase their positions confidently. Conversely, any policy reversals could instantly shatter these expectations.

So instead of obsessing over whether $143,000 can be reached, it’s better to focus on how these driving factors might change. Any problem in one link could cause the entire story to unravel.