Weekend Summary: Two Key Events This Week and Wall Street's Fierce Debate on the 2026 Outlook

**1. The Bank of Japan's Gentle Move**

Yesterday afternoon, the Bank of Japan finally announced a 25 basis point rate hike. The market was quite nervous beforehand, worried about potential sharp volatility. However, Ueda and his team’s tone at the press conference was very mild, clearly leaning dovish.

To put it metaphorically, it’s like being so nervous you think you’re about to be severely criticized, but the other side just gently reminds you, "Pay attention next time." Half of the weight in investors’ hearts was lifted, and there was no panic selling; Bitcoin even saw a slight rebound. From a macro perspective, the biggest bearish factor for this month has basically been realized, and short-term risks have been released.

**2. The Bull-Bear Battle in 2026**

Regarding next year’s market, Wall Street institutions are now completely divided, with opinions differing dangerously.

**Bearish camp predictions:**
An analyst from a top-tier investment bank is quite extreme, claiming that there will be a significant correction in the first half of 2026. Bitcoin could fall back to $60,000–$65,000, Ethereum might drop below $2,000, and SOL could be halved. This kind of forecast is essentially a stress test scenario; if prices really fall like that, many investors’ cost bases will need to be adjusted upward.

**Bullish camp arguments:**
Citi Bank projects Bitcoin at $143,000. Their logic is that ETF inflows still have room to grow, and the US stock bull market will continue to unfold.

The two camps’ views are sharply divided, and it all depends on which side the market will give a report card to next year.