Looking at the recent market, it feels like the problem is no longer at the bull-bear cycle level.

The overall crypto space seems to have lost its upward momentum. Bitcoin isn't lacking buyers; it's really just not moving. What you can feel is—funds are flowing into completely different areas. Gold, tech stocks, and similar assets are drawing attention—they either have broad public consensus or generate tangible cash flow. And Bitcoin? It’s mostly held up by imagination.

This is the most awkward part. Relying on optimistic expectations to drive growth, once liquidity shrinks, the decline often exceeds expectations. There are no new narratives in the market, no profit-making effects; retail investors see no hope, naturally they won't enter, and new capital flow has dried up.

Institutional players are the smartest—they only make big moves when genuine systemic risks appear and they have no choice but to allocate. Currently, given the global situation, it hasn't reached the point of "must hold Bitcoin." The remaining market participants are mainly arbitrage funds and short-term traders; the market hasn't collapsed, but it definitely lacks heat.

A deeper crisis lies in—Bitcoin's positioning itself has become problematic. It’s becoming more compliant and increasingly accepted by the mainstream, but this precisely weakens its core narrative: anti-establishment, decentralization, bypassing financial regulation. Ironically, it hasn't yet grown to the level of gold—becoming a standard option in wealth management.

As for innovations like stock tokenization and prediction markets? Basically, they’re just riding on others’ coattails. In the context of high interest rates and strong regulatory expectations, funds only recognize two things: assets that can continuously generate returns, or those explicitly backed by the system. Bitcoin neither yields interest nor has a new narrative, and it lacks guaranteed institutional backing. When systemic uncertainty decreases, it naturally gets pushed to the margins.

Right now, it’s stuck here—no one really *must* buy Bitcoin.